“The prognosis is for these marine storms to become more intense with time.”
By Dr. John J. Hidore
October 2, 2017—-In the many years since global warming and climate change became recognized as a global problem, it has been forecast that severe storms would become more severe. The severity of hurricanes in the 21st Century supports this forecast.
North Atlantic Hurricanes
Hurricanes occur in many parts of the world’s oceans and go by different names in different regions.
In the North Atlantic and South Atlantic Oceans, they are called hurricanes. In the North Atlantic, the hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and most hurricanes occur during this period.
In 2017, the first storm to reach hurricane strength was Arlene on April 19, well before the normal season begins. It was only the second named storm to occur in April since records began. This year, in 2017, is the first time that two hurricanes of category four reached the United States. Both of these were Atlantic hurricanes. If the recent hurricane that struck Puerto Rico is included it raises that number to three.
South Atlantic Hurricanes
Hurricanes are rare in the Atlantic Ocean south of the equator. Many tropical lows develop in this region, but Hurricane Catarina, in 2004, was the first and only tropical depression in history to reach hurricane status in this part of the global ocean.
North Pacific Severe Storms
The northern Pacific Ocean is divided into two regions for naming severe cyclonic storms. North of the Equator and East of the International Date Line at 180 degrees, they are hurricanes. The eastern Pacific hurricane season begins earlier than does the Atlantic season. It runs from May 15 through November. In 2017, the first system to reach tropical storm status was Adrian and developed on May 9, the earliest on record. However, it did not reach hurricane strength.
The northwest Pacific region extends from 100 degrees East to the International date line. In this region the storms are referred to as typhoons. Most of the worst typhoons on record have occurred in the 21st Century. This is particularly true when fatalities indicate the severity. The Philippine Islands lie in the path of these storms. Between five and ten tropical cyclones make landfall in the islands each year. Haiyan, in 2013, was the most severe on record, taking more than 6000 lives and displacing several million people. The local name for the storm was Typhoon Yolanda. The first typhoon of 2017 formed on January 7. Typhoon Noru formed in July and became a Category 5, or super typhoon.
Indian Ocean Cyclones
In the Indian Ocean and western parts of the South Pacific region, these storms are called cyclones. In 2015 Cyclone Pam reached a Category 5 status with sustained winds of 160 mph
The Coming Years
Climate change, and particularly warmer water in the Pacific Ocean are most certainly contributing to the increased severity of the storm. The prognosis is for these marine storms to become more intense with time.
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